Welcome to 2005! Today’s investing environment is
significantly tamer and much more cautious. There’s more in-depth due diligence on investments and technologies. ROI
is an even larger issue than ever
before. Fewer investors are willing to wait 10 or 15 years for a new drug to
move through the pipeline — and, odds are, not get approval in the end.
So what is
going on? I asked four leaders in
the emerging technology world of investments and research to describe where they see biotech going and growing. I also
asked a special situations analyst
about the hot areas for individual investors. Here’s what they have to say:
Biotech goes in cycles andalways
has. You’ll typically see nine months
of IPO activity; then you’ll see four years of a plateau or
trough
period. There are very few biotech IPOs getting done now. There was a little
up-tick starting in the fall of ’03
and lasting till summer of ’04, and now things have quieted down a little.
There’s more VC money now, but it’s
harder for earlier-stage companies to get money. The valuations
aren’t as good, and the VCs are favoring
later-stage companies for investing.
What is a start-up to do? Great ideas
and great start-upcompanies are still going to get funded more
easily than others. But companies
still have to look for funding.
Funding depends on the company, the nature of its products and management, the marketplace for its products, etc. That has always
been the case. The market always rewards these assets.
The general funding framework for
biotech companies is a spectrum that has shifted from left to right—left representing lower valuations and more difficulty, and right
representing higher valuations and more ease in obtaining financing. In good times the lesser companies have also shifted to the right. In times like today, when the whole frame shifts to the left, some earlier-stage
companies shift so far to the left that
they can’t get funding at all.
Right now, angel investors are the place for really
early start-ups to look for their first couple of million dollars. We started
with angel investors at Acorda. What you are finding now is that companies that 3-4years ago might have jumped
directly into a
VC round are forced to go for
angel investing. It’s that whole frame
shift.
The current
fashion is for product companies. People
funding biotech are looking for products that are in late-stage clinical
trials—that direction. If you’ve got a product in phase II or III clinical
trials, you’re in much better shape than most companies right now.
NJTC Venture
Fund, an $80 million early-stage venture capital investor, has identified two
life science sectors as especially
ripe for investment: consumer directed health (CDH) and ocular disease.
CDH is a desperately needed alternative to rising
healthcare costs. CareGain and other emerging young companies enable insurers
like Cigna to offer corporations these tax-advantaged solutions.
Eyetech (NASDAQ:
EYET) has alerted physicians,patients, and investors that back-of-the-eye diseases are addressable despite their inaccessibility.Gene therapy and RNAi approaches represent exciting new ways to address the loss of vision orblindness we all must face as a consequence
of aging.
Venture
investors today are seeking healthcare opportunities in greater numbers, in
part because the telecommunications industry
has been depressed. Both the life sciences and telecommunications
industries, however, can be capital intensive, with burdensome regulatory
demands. Deals in these industries with neither characteristic are appealing,
assuming all else equal.
The National Institutes of Health (NIH), a component of
the Department of Health and Human Services, funds a range of projects whose
goals are to solve important biomedical problems through applicationof
nanotechnologytools and concepts.
NIH research also informs
nanotechnology
research by providing deep understanding of biological
processes—evolved over eons—that occur at the nanoscale.
The themes of
projects funded range from using
nanotools to study basic biomolecular function, to re-engineering of naturally
occurring molecules to serve other purposes,
to development of novel sensors, to development of imaging agents that
report back specific biochemical or molecular information, to the development
of therapeutics including novel ways to modify the surfaces of implants or to
deliver drugs. Among these projects:
Atomic force microscopy as a tool to
study basic biochemical mechanisms of DNA molecules
Using extremely bright fluorescent
quantum dot probes to study cohorts of individual receptor molecules that are
important in signaling and interaction with the environment
Reverse-engineering a naturally
occurring transport system, the nuclear pore complex, with the goal of using
that information to fabricate a protein purification device
Engineering pores in biological
membranes, to use them to sense the presence and concentration of biologically
relevant molecules in diagnostic assays or possibly in vivo
New surface
treatments for implants to improve their interactions with bone and surrounding
tissue, resulting in better biocompatibility and biointegration
A novel drug
delivery system in which particles would be present in the patient’s circulation
and the drug would be delivered only when needed, upon an external signal
delivered by a magnetic field
Nanoparticles
to deliver imaging agents and therapeutics specifically via the blood vessels of
tumors.
several different funding opportunities, each of
which includes a description of research goals.
Several new programs have recently been launched to advance the
application of nanotechnology to
biomedicine. These include a program for nanotechnology centers relevant to heart, lung, blood, and sleep; a comprehensive program
for cancer nanotechnology; toxicology studies on nanoparticles; and an NIH
Roadmap Initiative on Nanomedicine.
Descriptions are accessible from links at http://www.becon.nih.gov/nano.htm.
Products that need heavy integration are still going to find funding tough for 2005. Two areas of products that enter-prises are buying aresecurity and analytics. In addition, we believe entertainment technology is a major investment
opportunity.
We just invested
with Accel Partners in Qliktech, a
Swedish company whose
technology allows people to
upload onto PCs the company analytics andrun queries without having to go to the data warehouse, which could take days.
These flexible
systems are easy and fast to install compared with legacy systems.
Another example of types of
companies weare funding are companies creating
the rightkind of dashboards (they look like a dashboard in
a car or plane, and the user cancustomize
the dials). While dashboards are currently used on the operations side of companies, their primary
applications will be
for compliance and key performanceindicators. The market is directed at business leaders and CXOs who want to be
able
to compare multiple values, charts, indices, etc., at the same time.
Cyberark represents a security investment we have made. The company’s
product is called
Vault, and it essentially protects specificdata
sources instead of protecting the entire perimeter of an enterprise, which, once hacked into at any point, allows
the hackeraccess to the entire enterprise.
This softwareprotects anything, such as
passwords in largebanks. The program doesn’t care
if data is in or out
of the firewall.
Another area that’s very hot right
now is entertainment technology. One of our investments is Forterra, which developed amulti-player type of game called a massively multiplayer persistence game
(MMP). The game doesn’t begin or end; it constantly plays. Forterra understood how to
apply thistechnology for homeland security,
healthcare and
military purposes and now counts the U.S. army among its customers.
On the hardware side, our
investments arefocused on in a number of
companies that providechip sets for new
consumer applications. We’veinvested in
Tak Imaging. They have a very high performance chip set for consumer printers so that, for example, you can print pictures directly off camera
phones in a matter of seconds, not minutes.
LabToWallStreet
Gateway Reports is particularly
excited about the small cap universe as a whole. The small cap Russell 2000
index has out-performed the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500
for the last six years. We believe investors will again see strong absolute
performance from the small cap
universe thisyear. Specifically, small cap
medical technology
and biotechnology stocks are likely to outperform their large cap big brothers in the pharmaceutical and hospital
supply sectors.
An era of consolidation in the healthcare industry has created a ceiling
that inhibits revenue
growth for large cap equities and haspriced
large cap healthcare stocks to perfection. Consolidation has also raised the bar of success for new products to
untenable levels.
Moreover, the tendency of traditional Wall Street research institutions to cover only large cap equities
has created unusual opportunities in the small cap sector. We believe there are significant
opportunities inthe medical device and hospital
managementspace. In this space, savvy
investors can findcompanies that are profitable and
are experiencing
double and even triple digit revenue growth. In particular companies that provide hospital management solutions
like ECLP, surgical
solutions like ISRG and imaging 3-dtechnology
like MRCY may offer compellinginvestment
opportunities when a disciplined investor initiates a position at a good price.